Macroeconomic Environment
Weakness in US tech sector raises concerns
Google and Tesla’s earnings reports released yesterday did not meet Wall Street’s high expectations. Investors may also doubt their outlook on artificial intelligence and whether large-scale investments will yield the expected returns. There are also concerns in the market that without further interest rate cuts, the US could enter an irreversible deep recession.
This month, the “copper-to-gold ratio” (represented by the blue line in the chart) has fallen by more than 8%, which the market perceives as a warning signal for risk assets. The relative decline in copper prices currently raises concerns whether risk assets can continue to strengthen.
Current Market Status and Future Trends
Recently, influenced by the landing of US stocks and Ethereum ETFs, the market has started to weaken. Bitcoin (BTC) prices are showing signs of weakening, and the altcoin market is following suit. Short-term market sentiment remains elevated, but the outlook for the coming week is less optimistic.
After the Ethereum ETF launch benefited from a favorable reception, recent trends in Bitcoin show signs of peaking. Following the approval of the Ethereum ETF, Grayscale introduced substantial short-term selling pressure, combining with profit-taking chips in the short term to create significant selling pressure. Additionally, after a strong rally, concerns are emerging in the market regarding the profitability contribution of AI in the tech sector, which could potentially lead US stocks into a bearish trend. Currently, the VIX index continues to decline, and future developments require close monitoring for a potential shift in sentiment.
High-Quality Tracks
TON Ecosystem
Strong Fundamentals
In the subdued narrative of the cryptocurrency market’s top tier, TON stands out as one of the few chains that has kept people in a state of FOMO for months. It boasts a social platform with 900 million users, GameFi with tens of millions of users, Notcoin with exponential growth, a massive untapped user base, and the most user-friendly migration platform for mini-programs, among other labels. TON’s gameplay on-chain is straightforward, its economic system is directly effective, and its dissemination efficiency is high. Recently, Binance Labs announced an investment in Catizen’s release platform, Pluto Studio, maintaining continued interest in TON’s ecosystem’s small games.
Notcoin (NOT): Originally an experimental project on Telegram, Notcoin attracts users through gamified interactions with virtual coin mining, aiming to provide newcomers with an entry experience into cryptocurrencies. It underwent internal testing in November 2023, gaining over 650,000 followers, and officially launched on January 1, 2024, with over 5 million players joining in the first week.
Catizen (CATI): Catizen is a popular Telegram game where players act as mayors of virtual cat cities, developing cities through construction and integrating urban development with crypto-economics in a “play-to-earn” model. Players can earn tokens through development and completing tasks, with daily tasks and rewards adding to the fun. Players can also choose different cat characters, offering a unique experience.
Hamster Kombat (HMSTR): Hamster Kombat is a new popular game on Telegram where players assume the role of a fictional CEO of a crypto exchange for hamsters. The goal is to propel startup companies to the industry pinnacle through market investment, licenses, talent acquisition, and new products, combining fun with strategy.
Solana Track
Highlights: SOL Spot ETF
Following the launch of the Ethereum ETF, the market is now betting on the next approved ETF asset. Currently, Solana is the market’s leading candidate. Meanwhile, tokens within the Solana ecosystem have recently shown relative activity.
In the past 30 days, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on Solana have surpassed Ethereum’s mainnet in trading volume for the first time, making it the most frequently used chain by this metric. With increased on-chain activities, Solana’s DeFi infrastructure sector is witnessing valuation adjustments, with the market generally starting to appreciate this sector.
Specific Token List:
PYTH (Pyth Network): PYTH is a real-time blockchain market data protocol similar to Chainlink on Ethereum. It aims to provide high-quality real-time price data for DeFi and other applications. PYTH has been expanding its boundaries in the short term and is now live on the Starknet mainnet.
JUP (Jupiter): JUP is a liquidity aggregator that helps users find the best liquidity pools on Solana to enhance trading efficiency. JUP has recently performed well, achieving new historical highs.
User Focus
Popular Twitter Tokens
$KAMALA
On July 21, President Biden announced on social media platform X that he would not seek re-election in the upcoming presidential election. Additionally, Biden stated in another X post, “I fully support and recommend Kamala as the party’s candidate for this year’s election.” He further called upon Democrats to unite to defeat Trump. Approximately half an hour after Biden’s announcement, Kamala Harris received his endorsement and began sending fundraising emails. Harris stated her intention to “win” the nomination and “do everything I can to unite our country and defeat Trump.”
$ Solend
Solana ecosystem lending protocol Solend announced its rebranding to Save (Solana’s Permissionless Savings Account). Alongside the rebranding, Solend also introduced three new products: decentralized stablecoin SUSD, liquidity staking token saveSOL for SOL, and a meme token shorting platform dumpy.fun.
2) Popular DApps
Sol Dust Vacuum
Sol Dust Vacuum is a project independently developed by full-stack blockchain developer Alexandre Neto. He encountered a common issue within the Solana ecosystem where users accumulate a significant amount of “dust” tokens—tokens that have become worthless but still incur account fees. Alexandre created Sol Dust Vacuum to assist other users in closing these accounts and reclaiming their fees.
Summary
Over the past week, the market retraced following a strong rally due to weakness in US stocks, leaving uncertainty about whether the rebound has ended. The launch of the Ethereum spot ETF failed to reverse Grayscale’s selling pressure, causing brief volatility and putting pressure on some altcoins. Disappointing earnings reports from US tech stocks raised doubts about the return on AI investments and concerns about a potential deep recession in the US. The significant decline in the copper-to-gold ratio is viewed as a warning signal for risk assets.
Currently, short-term market sentiment remains elevated, with the outlook for the coming week not optimistic. TON and the Solana ecosystem have shown notable performance and merit attention, but it’s crucial to monitor changes in market sentiment and the direction of volatility indices.
The post first appeared on HTX Square.
