Declining BTC Whale Ratio on Binance May Signal Market Rebound

Analysts suggests that Bitcoin's recent downturn may be nearing its end, as the selling pressure from large holders on Binance appears to be subsiding.

In a March 12 post on X, crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out a decrease in Binance’s BTC whale ratio, which measures the share of the top 10 inflows relative to total inflows. A high ratio typically indicates strong whale selling activity, often resulting in short-term corrections.

The recent decline in this ratio, however, suggests that major holders are reducing their sell orders, potentially signaling an upcoming market recovery.

Macroeconomic Factors

Bitcoin has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 30% from its all-time high in January and reaching a four-month low of around $77,000 on March 11. Despite this, on-chain data shows that whale holdings have been increasing. Large holders have bought nearly 65,000 BTC over the past 30 days, suggesting that institutional investors view current prices as an attractive entry point.

Other factors have also impacted the market. Initially, the U.S. government's announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve seemed positive, but it later became clear that these assets would mainly come from seized holdings rather than fresh acquisitions.

This has added to investor uncertainty, along with record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic concerns like potential tariffs. Traditional markets, particularly the NASDAQ, continue to have a significant influence on Bitcoin's price.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared his view on March 11, predicting that Bitcoin could hit a bottom around $70,000, a 36% drop from its all-time high, before starting its next rally. He believes that for a true recovery to take place, broader financial shifts, including a downturn in the stock market, are necessary.

Looking Ahead: Currently, the ongoing accumulation by large investors and the decline in the whale ratio suggest that selling pressure is easing. With Bitcoin trading at $83,234, there’s potential for a recovery if these trends continue.