Spot Bitcoin ETFs Set to Surpass Satoshi’s BTC Holdings by Year-End

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are set to surpass Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million BTC holdings by year-end, driven by massive inflows and institutional interest. With these ETFs rapidly closing the gap on gold ETFs, they are poised to become a major force in the digital and traditional asset markets.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track to become the largest holders of Bitcoin, surpassing even the estimated 1.1 million BTC held by Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. These ETFs have seen significant growth since their launch in January, and they are also catching up to gold ETFs in terms of total assets under management (AUM).

According to crypto analyst HODL15Capital, spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold approximately 1.081 million BTC, just shy of Nakamoto’s holdings. Bloomberg’s Senior ETF Analyst, Eric Balchunas, noted that the ETFs are now 98% of the way to overtaking Nakamoto, predicting that this milestone could occur by Thanksgiving if the current pace of inflows continues.

Massive Inflows and Institutional Interest Drive Growth

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a sharp increase in inflows, with a 97% rise week-over-week, totaling $3.3 billion over the past five days. A significant portion of this surge comes from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which alone contributed $2 billion. This growth has coincided with the introduction of options trading for these products, which many believe will attract even more institutional investors into the Bitcoin space.

Bitcoin ETFs Gaining Ground on Gold ETFs

Chart by TradingView

Bitcoin ETFs are also narrowing the gap with gold ETFs, which currently manage $120 billion in assets. According to Balchunas, Bitcoin ETFs now manage $107 billion and could surpass gold ETFs by Christmas. This comes after Bitcoin’s impressive 160% price surge in 2024, which has driven its market capitalization to $1.91 trillion—surpassing both silver and major corporations such as Saudi Aramco.

Despite this remarkable performance, Bitcoin still lags behind gold, which continues to hold the title of the world’s largest asset with a market cap of over $18 trillion. However, the rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs signals a possible shift in the balance of power between traditional and digital assets.

Looking Ahead: From January 2012 until November 2024, Bitcoin has gained in 2,845,000% in value while over the same period of time, Gold has only gained around 72%. Therefore, we can expect Bitcoin to become the world’s largest asset in the future, especially if the political climate becomes more favorable.