A New Analysis of Bitcoin Halving Cycle You Need to See
Despite the short-term market volatility, in the long-term, Bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to follow its halving cycle model. If history is a guide, each Bitcoin halving cycle can be broken down into 5 different stages that can be used to explain the long-term cyclicality of Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Halving Cycle
In this new framework, the halving-driven cycle of Bitcoin follows a pattern that can be broken into 5 different stages as follows:
The initial acceleration phase to a new all-time high (1*).
A pullback towards the 12-month moving average where we find the first point of inflection – aka support (2*).
A bounce from the 12-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) (3*).
The bounce is short-lived, and Bitcoin's price breaks below the 12-month SMA support line (4*).
Bitcoin finds a new bottom at the 48-month SMA, which takes between 6 to 12 months to resolve (5*).
Today, March 19, 2022, Bitcoin's price has lost the support of the 12-month SMA, which indicates that we're in the 4th stage of the new Bitcoin halving cycle.
As the Bitcoin price hovers below the 12-month SMA, there is a high chance to see a retest of the 48-month SMA, which currently stands at $20,437, to mark an important cyclical milestone.
Examining each halving event can give us valuable information into the long-term cycles at play. In the long term, the next halving event will occur in 2024, when we expect the halving cycle to start again and push Bitcoin price to new all-time highs.
